Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 - update 67
Weekly update
As of 20 September 2009, there have been more than 300,000 laboratory confirmed cases of pandemic influenza H1N1, 3917 deaths, in 191 countries and territories reported to WHO.
As more and more countries have stopped counting individual cases, particularly of milder illness, the case count is significantly lower than the actually number of cases that have occurred. While the case counts no longer reflect actual disease activity, WHO is actively monitoring the progress of the pandemic through frequent consultations with the WHO Regional Offices and member states and through monitoring of multiple sources of data.
In the temperate regions of the northern hemisphere, influenza-like-illness (ILI) activity continues to increase in many areas. In North America, the United States has reported continued increases in activity above the seasonal baseline for the last 2 to 3 weeks, primarily in the southeast but now also appearing in the upper midwest and the northeast. In Europe and Central and Western Asia, the United Kingdom is reporting regional increases in ILI activity in Northern Ireland and Scotland and the Netherlands, France, Ireland, and Israel are reporting rates above the seasonal baseline. In In Japan, influenza activity continues to be slightly above the seasonal epidemic threshold. The increases in ILI activity have been accompanied by increases in laboratory isolations of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 in most of these areas.
In the tropical regions of the Americas and Asia, influenza activity remains variable. In parts of India, Bangladesh and Cambodia, influenza transmission continues to be active, while other countries in the Southeast Asia have been recently reporting declining transmission (Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand). Although most countries in the tropical regions of the Americas are still reporting regional to widespread geographic spread of influenza activity, there is no consistent pattern in the trend of respiratory diseases. Peru and Mexico have reported an increasing trend in some areas, while most others are reporting an unchanged or decreasing trend (most notably Bolivia, Venezuela and Brazil).
In the temperate regions of the southern hemisphere, influenza transmission has largely returned to baseline (Chile, Argentina, and New Zealand) or is continuing to decline (Australia and South Africa).
All pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza viruses analyzed to date have been antigenically and genetically similar to A/California/7/2009-like pandemic H1N1 2009 virus. See below for a detailed laboratory surveillance update.
About pandemic flu
· Last modified date:
1 May 2009
A pandemic is a global disease outbreak. Pandemic flu occurs when a new influenza virus emerges for which people have little or no immunity, and for which there is no vaccine. The disease spreads easily from person to person, causes serious illness and can sweep across the country in which it originates and around the world in a very short time.
In contrast to the ‘ordinary’ or ‘seasonal’, flu outbreaks which we see every winter in the UK, flu pandemics occur infrequently - usually every few decades. There were three last century. The most serious was in 1918, killing millions of people worldwide and smaller pandemics happened in 1957 and 1968.
Are we at risk now?
A pandemic can only start when three conditions have been met:
· a new influenza virus subtype emerges
· it infects humans, causing serious illness
· it spreads easily and sustainably among humans.
When will a pandemic arrive in UK?
We do not know – it can’t be predicted. The gaps between previous pandemics have varied widely. Intervals between previous pandemics have varied from 11 to 42 years with no recognisable pattern. Three influenza pandemics occurred in the last century – 1918/19 (Spanish flu), 1957/58 (Asian flu) and 1968/69 (Hong Kong flu). All affected large numbers of the population, causing many deaths and huge economic and social disruption.
How long will it take to arrive in the UK?
Probably less than six months and possibly just a few weeks or less, but this will depend upon where the pandemic emerges. Of course, it is important to remember that the pandemic could emerge in the UK. The increasing speed and volume of modern travel means infectious diseases can travel very rapidly around the globe.
Can it be prevented at any stage?
International effort will be made in trying to control a pandemic when it emerges. However, influenza is highly infectious and because whole populations will be susceptible to the new virus, despite people’s best efforts, it is likely to continue to spread.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has purchased a stockpile of antivirals which can be transported to the source of the outbreak. It is hoped that these antivirals may help to contain the emerging virus.
Who is at risk?
We cannot know which groups will be affected by pandemic flu until the virus emerges. However, we know from previous pandemics that a future one is likely to have a major impact worldwide and from experience of previous pandemics we know that it is not necessarily the young and the elderly that will be affected.
How is the virus spread?
The virus is easily passed from person to person by breathing in air containing the virus produced when an infected person talks, coughs or sneezes. It can also spread through hand/ face contact after touching a person or surface contaminated with the virus.
Symptoms
Pandemic flu is likely to cause the same symptoms as ordinary flu but the symptoms may be more severe because nobody will have any immunity or protection against that particular virus. People infected with the current strand of the avian virus (H5N1) have shown everything from typical human influenza-like symptoms (fever, cough, sore throat, and muscle aches) to pneumonia, severe respiratory diseases, and other life-threatening complications.
martes, 29 de septiembre de 2009
What do you kow about "A" flu?
WHAT DO YOU KNOW ABOUT “A” FLU (SWINE FLU)
1. You would have heard that swine flu is a pandemic, but what does this word mean?
2. Is it the same disease as the normal (seasonal flu)?
3. Has it got any relationship with avian flu (bird flu)?
4. Tell wether these sentences are true or false
a. We’ve got a vaccine for “A” flu but it is not very effective.
b. “A” flu is more dangerous than seasonal flu because it’s mortality rate is bigger.
c. A mask for your mouth and nose is a good means not to catch flu.
d. The best means to prevent catching “A” flu is to clean frequently your hands.
e. Young people catch “A” flu more easily than seasonal flu.
f. Symptoms of “A” flu are more serious than those of the seasonal flu.
g. The use of antibiotics is very effective for treating the flu.
h. We have not at present any good treatment for “A” flu.
i. Normal vaccine for seasonal flu is also useful for “A” flu.
j. The flu is caused by a Virus.
k. But “A” flu is caused by a bacteria.
l. Normal antivirals are not effective against “A” flu
m. Risk goups are the same as with seasonal flu.
5. What`s “Tamiflu”?
6. Describe very shortly what a virus is. If possible draw a picture.
7. Have you ever heard about the “Spanish flu”?. If not look for information.
8. The “World Health Organisation” (WHO) don´t consider any more the term “swine flu”as correct, instead they propose the term “H1N1 flu”. Could you give a reason for that?
1. You would have heard that swine flu is a pandemic, but what does this word mean?
2. Is it the same disease as the normal (seasonal flu)?
3. Has it got any relationship with avian flu (bird flu)?
4. Tell wether these sentences are true or false
a. We’ve got a vaccine for “A” flu but it is not very effective.
b. “A” flu is more dangerous than seasonal flu because it’s mortality rate is bigger.
c. A mask for your mouth and nose is a good means not to catch flu.
d. The best means to prevent catching “A” flu is to clean frequently your hands.
e. Young people catch “A” flu more easily than seasonal flu.
f. Symptoms of “A” flu are more serious than those of the seasonal flu.
g. The use of antibiotics is very effective for treating the flu.
h. We have not at present any good treatment for “A” flu.
i. Normal vaccine for seasonal flu is also useful for “A” flu.
j. The flu is caused by a Virus.
k. But “A” flu is caused by a bacteria.
l. Normal antivirals are not effective against “A” flu
m. Risk goups are the same as with seasonal flu.
5. What`s “Tamiflu”?
6. Describe very shortly what a virus is. If possible draw a picture.
7. Have you ever heard about the “Spanish flu”?. If not look for information.
8. The “World Health Organisation” (WHO) don´t consider any more the term “swine flu”as correct, instead they propose the term “H1N1 flu”. Could you give a reason for that?
domingo, 27 de septiembre de 2009
ABOUT OCKHAM’S RAZOR
Consider these theories about the movement of planets, and select one of them by using the principle of Ockham’s razor. Justify your election
• The planets move around the sun in ellipses because there is a force between any of them and the sun which decreases as the square of the distance.
• The planets move around the sun in ellipses because there is a force between any of them and the sun which decreases as the square of the distance. This force is generated by the will of some powerful aliens.
Answer this question and send me the answer to my e-mail account
Consider these theories about the movement of planets, and select one of them by using the principle of Ockham’s razor. Justify your election
• The planets move around the sun in ellipses because there is a force between any of them and the sun which decreases as the square of the distance.
• The planets move around the sun in ellipses because there is a force between any of them and the sun which decreases as the square of the distance. This force is generated by the will of some powerful aliens.
Answer this question and send me the answer to my e-mail account
martes, 22 de septiembre de 2009
Find out information about these topics
1.- Ockham's razor
2.- Serendipity of science
3.- Fundamental science
4.- Karl Popper
The information must be:
* Short and made on your own ( no copies from the internet)
* Sources of information must be mentioned
2.- Serendipity of science
3.- Fundamental science
4.- Karl Popper
The information must be:
* Short and made on your own ( no copies from the internet)
* Sources of information must be mentioned
Heartbeat rate
THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD
INTRODUCTION
Science has been described as a way of knowing. It emerges from man's curiosity about ourselves and the world around us. Seeking to understand seems to be one of our basic drives. We ask questions that arise from our observations of natural things; and we seek discovery of answers. Striving to reveal the secrets of nature, scientists have devised a method of getting at the truth or solving problems. This is called the scientific method. Actually, there are many methods but they all bear common features or rules.
Is the scientific method something that only scientists can use? Certainly not; its usefulness extends to all of us, even in our daily lives. For example, I can use it to find why my car will not start. Or, I can find out what foods give me a stomachache.
Despite what the scientist wants to find out and the exact procedure used, certain features of the scientific method are common. Scientists make observations that lead them to ask questions. They make educated guesses about possible answers, then devise ways to test their guesses. In its classical form the scientific method involves the following steps:
1. Observation and Stating of a Problem - Scientific investigations usually begin with an observation that stimulates a desire to know or understand. The scientist then states the problem as clearly and concisely as possible.
2. Collection of Pertinent Information - An attempt should be made to assemble the pertinent facts concerning the problem. The scientist seeks to tap into as much available information about the problem as possible. This information may come from the library, the worldwide web, colleagues, or from other available sources.
3. Formulation of a Hypothesis - Based on information assembled in step two above, a tentative explanation or hypothesis is advanced. Some call this an educated guess. This is a trial idea, a possible solution to the problem. A key feature of the hypothesis is that it can be tested or validated.
4. Testing of the Hypothesis - In this step the scientist designs and executes an experiment to test the validity of the hypothesis. The exact design of this test can vary greatly and depends upon the nature of the study and the creativity of the investigator. The experiment must be carefully planned and conducted with great precision. Scientists strive to eliminate all human and instrumental bias. Accurate records as quantifiable data must be kept of every phase of the experiment. Results of the experiment are gathered and analyzed. Many experiments consist of a control group and an experimental group. The experimental group is identical to the control group in every respect except one, called the variable. The one substance, situation, etc. that is being tested is varied. All other factors are kept constant in both the experimental group and the control group. Therefore, the control serves as the basis or standard by which it is determined if the one variable is responsible for any differences in results. A key feature of the experiment is that it must be repeatable. That is, other researchers must be able to repeat the experiment under the same conditions and achieve the same results.
5. Conclusion - When the experiment is complete, the researcher must evaluate the results in an effort to reach a conclusion. The conclusion either supports or fails to support the original hypothesis. In either case, knowledge is gained and the researcher moves on.
6. Publication of Results - While your personal use of the scientific method does not involve this step, it is vital to the scientist. This requires publication, in appropriate scientific literature, of a detailed report of the problem, the hypothesis, all experimental methods and results, and the conclusions reached by the investigator. This allows other scientists to repeat the investigation if they choose, as a way of confirming the validity of the study.
LABORATORY EXERCISE PROCEDURE
Use the indicated steps of the scientific method with each of the following three (3) exercises. These exercises are designed to provide some experience using the scientific method as a way to acquire knowledge. Carefully complete each exercise recording the required information on the report sheets beginning on page 4. When complete, submit the reports sheets to the instructor to be graded.
Activity:
I. You have noticed that your heart rate seems to race when you physically exert yourself. You wonder if the human heart rate increases as the intensity of exercise increases. You can hypothesize that this is indeed the case.
A. State the observation.
B. What problem or question has been identified?
C. The hypothesis is
D. Experimentation: To obtain the necessary data, you must determine your heart rate at varying levels of physical exertion. You will first monitor your heart rate at rest to establish a base line. Lie down for at least five minutes, then determine your heart rate by monitoring your pulse rate. (Blood surges through arteries each time your heart beats.) On your report sheet, record your resting pulse rate in beats per minute. The step exercise will be used at varying levels of intensity. In this exercise you will step up one step, then step back down. Do this ten times in a one minute period. (Once every six seconds.) Quickly monitor your pulse in beats per minute. Record your pulse rate on the grid (graph) on the Report Sheet. Rest until your pulse rate nears your resting rate. Repeat the step exercise and pulse reading for: fifteen steps, twenty steps, twenty-five steps, thirty steps, thirty-five steps, and forty steps per minute. (If you are physically unable to perform the step exercise, substitute another mode of exertion which is measurable. Or let another person do the step test.) Summarize your results by plotting your heart rate against your exercise intensity on the graph provided.
E. Conclusion
Answer all the follow-up questions concerning this experiment.
This exercise should be reported on Report Sheets 1-2.
THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD Report Sheet 1
Student Name:
Date:
I.
A. Observation
B. Problem
C. Collected Information: (none for this illustration)
D. Hypothesis
E. Experiment
F. Conclusion
II. Use the following grid to make a graph to show your heart rate at each exercise intensity.
III. Answer the following questions
A. Interpret the graph in your own words.
THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD Report Sheet 2
Student Name:
B. Can we also conclude that:
1. The heart rate is directly proportional to the intensity of physical exertion? Why or why not?
2. That if we run this experiment on another family member the results and conclusion will be similar?
Why or why not?
3. That the graph for a highly conditioned athlete would look similar to your graph? Why or why not?
C. Could this test be repeated exactly by another researcher? Why is repeatability of experimentation important?
D. Is this test valid/reliable? Why or why not?
E. Design a better experiment which will yield results which are more reliable?
INTRODUCTION
Science has been described as a way of knowing. It emerges from man's curiosity about ourselves and the world around us. Seeking to understand seems to be one of our basic drives. We ask questions that arise from our observations of natural things; and we seek discovery of answers. Striving to reveal the secrets of nature, scientists have devised a method of getting at the truth or solving problems. This is called the scientific method. Actually, there are many methods but they all bear common features or rules.
Is the scientific method something that only scientists can use? Certainly not; its usefulness extends to all of us, even in our daily lives. For example, I can use it to find why my car will not start. Or, I can find out what foods give me a stomachache.
Despite what the scientist wants to find out and the exact procedure used, certain features of the scientific method are common. Scientists make observations that lead them to ask questions. They make educated guesses about possible answers, then devise ways to test their guesses. In its classical form the scientific method involves the following steps:
1. Observation and Stating of a Problem - Scientific investigations usually begin with an observation that stimulates a desire to know or understand. The scientist then states the problem as clearly and concisely as possible.
2. Collection of Pertinent Information - An attempt should be made to assemble the pertinent facts concerning the problem. The scientist seeks to tap into as much available information about the problem as possible. This information may come from the library, the worldwide web, colleagues, or from other available sources.
3. Formulation of a Hypothesis - Based on information assembled in step two above, a tentative explanation or hypothesis is advanced. Some call this an educated guess. This is a trial idea, a possible solution to the problem. A key feature of the hypothesis is that it can be tested or validated.
4. Testing of the Hypothesis - In this step the scientist designs and executes an experiment to test the validity of the hypothesis. The exact design of this test can vary greatly and depends upon the nature of the study and the creativity of the investigator. The experiment must be carefully planned and conducted with great precision. Scientists strive to eliminate all human and instrumental bias. Accurate records as quantifiable data must be kept of every phase of the experiment. Results of the experiment are gathered and analyzed. Many experiments consist of a control group and an experimental group. The experimental group is identical to the control group in every respect except one, called the variable. The one substance, situation, etc. that is being tested is varied. All other factors are kept constant in both the experimental group and the control group. Therefore, the control serves as the basis or standard by which it is determined if the one variable is responsible for any differences in results. A key feature of the experiment is that it must be repeatable. That is, other researchers must be able to repeat the experiment under the same conditions and achieve the same results.
5. Conclusion - When the experiment is complete, the researcher must evaluate the results in an effort to reach a conclusion. The conclusion either supports or fails to support the original hypothesis. In either case, knowledge is gained and the researcher moves on.
6. Publication of Results - While your personal use of the scientific method does not involve this step, it is vital to the scientist. This requires publication, in appropriate scientific literature, of a detailed report of the problem, the hypothesis, all experimental methods and results, and the conclusions reached by the investigator. This allows other scientists to repeat the investigation if they choose, as a way of confirming the validity of the study.
LABORATORY EXERCISE PROCEDURE
Use the indicated steps of the scientific method with each of the following three (3) exercises. These exercises are designed to provide some experience using the scientific method as a way to acquire knowledge. Carefully complete each exercise recording the required information on the report sheets beginning on page 4. When complete, submit the reports sheets to the instructor to be graded.
Activity:
I. You have noticed that your heart rate seems to race when you physically exert yourself. You wonder if the human heart rate increases as the intensity of exercise increases. You can hypothesize that this is indeed the case.
A. State the observation.
B. What problem or question has been identified?
C. The hypothesis is
D. Experimentation: To obtain the necessary data, you must determine your heart rate at varying levels of physical exertion. You will first monitor your heart rate at rest to establish a base line. Lie down for at least five minutes, then determine your heart rate by monitoring your pulse rate. (Blood surges through arteries each time your heart beats.) On your report sheet, record your resting pulse rate in beats per minute. The step exercise will be used at varying levels of intensity. In this exercise you will step up one step, then step back down. Do this ten times in a one minute period. (Once every six seconds.) Quickly monitor your pulse in beats per minute. Record your pulse rate on the grid (graph) on the Report Sheet. Rest until your pulse rate nears your resting rate. Repeat the step exercise and pulse reading for: fifteen steps, twenty steps, twenty-five steps, thirty steps, thirty-five steps, and forty steps per minute. (If you are physically unable to perform the step exercise, substitute another mode of exertion which is measurable. Or let another person do the step test.) Summarize your results by plotting your heart rate against your exercise intensity on the graph provided.
E. Conclusion
Answer all the follow-up questions concerning this experiment.
This exercise should be reported on Report Sheets 1-2.
THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD Report Sheet 1
Student Name:
Date:
I.
A. Observation
B. Problem
C. Collected Information: (none for this illustration)
D. Hypothesis
E. Experiment
F. Conclusion
II. Use the following grid to make a graph to show your heart rate at each exercise intensity.
III. Answer the following questions
A. Interpret the graph in your own words.
THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD Report Sheet 2
Student Name:
B. Can we also conclude that:
1. The heart rate is directly proportional to the intensity of physical exertion? Why or why not?
2. That if we run this experiment on another family member the results and conclusion will be similar?
Why or why not?
3. That the graph for a highly conditioned athlete would look similar to your graph? Why or why not?
C. Could this test be repeated exactly by another researcher? Why is repeatability of experimentation important?
D. Is this test valid/reliable? Why or why not?
E. Design a better experiment which will yield results which are more reliable?
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